Voices of AgEnRes - Interview with Petr Havlik and Tamás Krisztin

Interviewer: Could you briefly introduce yourselves, your organisation, and your role in the AgEnRes project? 

Petr: My name is Petr Havlík, an agricultural economist and the initial developer of the GLOBIOM model, the Global Biosphere Management Model. I am currently the program director of the biodiversity and natural resources research program at IIASA. IIASA's modeling tools have supported the European Commission, particularly the Directorate General for Climate Action, for over a decade in policy impact assessments for climate mitigation, focusing on land-based mitigation options. In the AgEnRes project, our role is to expand our tools to better cover the energy dimension, improving the linkage with the PRIMES energy system model. We aim to develop forward-looking scenarios and alternative policy options and innovations, which will be the main output of Work Package 7, which we are leading. 

Tamás: I’m Tamás Krisztin, an econometrician by training. I have worked extensively with agricultural economics and am also the scientific coordinator of a Horizon Europe project on land use and land management (LAMASUS). Within AgEnRes, I work with the GLOBIOM model and a database that tracks the costs of different agricultural inputs. We aim to update this database to provide a more in-depth coverage of fuel and other input costs, understanding how these costs fluctuate and incorporating risk factors. 

Interviewer: What are the main challenges in achieving the project's goals, and how do you plan to address them? 

Petr: We started decomposing the aggregate cost of agricultural production in a previous Horizon project, MIND STEP, focusing on fertiliser use. In AgEnRes, we’re expanding to energy inputs. The main challenges involve reallocating farm-level cost data (FADN) to specific activities using econometric methods and converting monetary values into physical units, such as litres of diesel. This requires combining FADN data with additional databases and expert knowledge to create a consistent physical unit input system. 

Tamás: Acquiring FADN data can be time-consuming, so we’re exploring alternative data sources to begin our modelling. Linking models, such as AgriPoliS, with our tools is also complex and requires multiple iterations to ensure accuracy. Coordination and careful management will be crucial to achieving successful integration and reliable outcomes. 

Petr: To complement, our models represent large-scale systems, covering individual countries within the EU and even at the global scale, but at the expense of a coarser representation of individual actors. Developing links to microeconomic models aims to improve the behaviour of our large-scale models and make them more consistent with the behaviour of individual farmers. 

Interviewer: How do you see the project benefiting farmers and agricultural communities? 

Petr: Improved models will lead to better policy assessments, ensuring that policies reflect the realities of individual farms. This should result in more relevant and effective policies that promote the agricultural sector and help avoid unintended harm based on less accurate assessments. 

Interviewer: Are there any exciting developments or milestones you’re looking forward to? 

Tamás: I’m excited about the development of the costing database in Work Package 2, which will be a direct input to our modelling work. It’s a new kind of data emerging, and I’m eager to see how it evolves. This is an immediate milestone we’re looking forward to. 

Interviewer: Do you have any message for stakeholders about the importance of AgEnRes? 

Petr: Please join us. We are preparing tools that allow detailed reviews of our data and modelling work throughout the project. We welcome input and suggestions for improvements in scenarios, policy specifications, and model developments. Better models lead to better policies, benefiting everyone involved. 

Tamás: The project is very topical, especially regarding fossil fuels and energy inputs. It’s at the forefront of public perception and policymaking, with profound implications for our work. Engaging with stakeholders is crucial to ensure our outcomes are relevant and impactful. 

Interviewer: Thank you very much.